Unit 8: Implementing Quantitative Risk Models

This unit focuses on demonstrating the use of Monte Carlo simulations and Bayes Theorem to apply quantitative risk modelling (QRM) to real-world problems. We will discuss the application of these techniques as part of the project management process and as a safety estimating tool.

Key Concepts Covered

  • Application of QRM: Learning how to apply quantitative risk modelling to real-world problems.
  • Case Studies: Reviewing practical examples of QRM in action.
  • Critical Evaluation: Understanding the strengths and limitations of various QRM techniques.

The seminar provided practical insights into how QRM techniques are implemented and evaluated. To the right is the reflective piece with the artefacts linked to this unit:

Reflection on Unit 8

In this unit, I learned about the application of quantitative risk modelling techniques to real-world problems. The insights gained from reading the following articles were particularly influential:

  • Goerlandt et al. (2017): Discussing the validity of QRA approaches and the most effective methods.
  • Hugo et al. (2018): Techniques applied to project management and recommendations to increase the use of QR analysis in projects.
  • Çelikbilek & Tüysüz (2020): Reviewing Multi-Criteria Decision Methods (MCDMs) and assessing their accuracy and validity.

Understanding these articles has enhanced my ability to select the most appropriate quantitative risk modelling technique for various situations. It also provided a critical perspective on the advantages and limitations of these techniques.